Imported Food Is Now Rising Half as Fast as Food Grown in Nigeria. Here's What the NBS Numbers Show

For years the story was simple. Anything imported got expensive fast, because the naira kept losing value. Local food was supposed to be the cheaper, steadier option.

The NBS September 2026 numbers don't fit that story any more.

The gap in one table

Imported food prices are rising at roughly half the speed of farm produce. And imported food is slowing faster. Its yearly rate dropped more than 3.6 points in one month.

Month on month, imported food barely moved at all: +0.04% between August and September.

How we got here

Imported food inflation actually rose through the first half of the year. It went from 7.62% in January to a peak of 14.66% in May. Since then it has come down every single month:

• May: 14.66%

• June: 13.63%

• July: 13.24%

• August: 12.82%

• September: 9.18%

Farm produce went the opposite direction for most of the year. It started at 9.76% in January and climbed to 21.52% by August, before easing a bit in September.

A quick note on the chart: farm produce shows a strange dip in May (-1.30%). That isn't a real price crash. In May 2025 the farm produce index spiked unusually high, so May 2026 is being compared against a very inflated base. Ignore that single point and the upward trend is clear.

Why would local food rise faster than imports?

The NBS doesn't give reasons. But a few factors are widely discussed, and they fit the data:

Costs on the farm and the road. Fertiliser, transport and labour have all become more expensive. Moving tomatoes from Kano to Lagos, or yams from Benue to Port Harcourt, is a big part of what you pay at the market. Transport prices in the CPI are up 12.63% in a year, and energy jumped in September.

Insecurity in farming areas. When farmers can't safely reach their farms, supply drops and prices go up. This hits local produce directly. It doesn't affect a bag of imported rice already sitting in a Lagos warehouse.

Imported prices depend on things far away. World food prices and the exchange rate matter much more for imports. If those stay calm, imported food stays calm, whatever is happening on Nigerian farms.

We're careful not to overclaim here. Several factors are probably working together, and the CPI alone can't separate them.

Rural households see it even more clearly

In rural areas, imported food prices actually fell 2.34% between August and September. They are now only 6.47% higher than a year ago. Urban imported food is up 10.63%.

Rural farm produce also fell sharply in September, down 5.11% in one month. That's harvest season doing its job. But over the year, rural farm produce is still up 16.43%, far ahead of imports.

What this means for you

1. Don't assume "made in Nigeria" is automatically cheaper this year. For some items, like certain brands of rice, pasta, or canned fish, the imported option may have become relatively better value. Compare per kilo, not per pack.

2. Harvest season is your friend. Farm produce fell 2.86% nationally in September. If you have storage space, staples like grains and beans are often cheapest in the months straight after harvest.

3. For farmers and agro-sellers: the gap is a warning. If local produce keeps rising faster than imports, some buyers, especially processors and big caterers, will switch. Keeping costs down matters more than ever.

The bottom line

Imported food inflation has slowed for four months in a row and is now at 9.18%. That's less than half the rate for locally grown farm produce. It turns the usual Nigerian assumption on its head. The causes are likely on our own farms and roads, not at the ports. And that's the part policy can actually fix.

Quick FAQ

What is the imported food inflation rate in Nigeria?

NBS data shows imported food prices were 9.18% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025.

Is local food more expensive than imported food in Nigeria?

The CPI measures how fast prices are rising, not price levels. But local farm produce prices are rising about twice as fast (18.85% yearly) as imported food (9.18%).

Why did farm produce inflation show a negative figure in May 2026?

It's a base effect. Farm produce prices spiked unusually in May 2025, so the May 2026 comparison looked low.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Base 2024 = 100). Calculations by Naijup.